Coaching Profiles

The hot topic these days on pretty much every UCLA message board and blog is who might replace Karl Dorrell as the head coach of the football program. There's been a lot of names bantered about and everybody seems to have their favorite candidate. I thought I'd spend a little time over the next week and write some articles that look a little deeper into some of the coaches that seem to be drawing the most interest. But before we get into the details, let's first take a look at what Dan Guererro would be working with if he decides to replace Dorrell this off season.

Right now Karl Dorrell is making right around $800,000 - $900,000 a year. That's not exactly an enticing salary, especially if UCLA wants to lure in a coach with some experience. You also have to factor in the cost-of-living on the west-side of LA, so Guerrero is going to have to seriously up that figure. There has been talk on the Bruin Show that UCLA might be able to afford somewhere around $1.2 - $1.5 million for a new coach. With that kind of pay range, it opens up a lot more options.

The other thing to consider is that UCLA isn't the only team potentially shopping for a new coach come January. There might be at least one other PAC-10 team looking for a coach as Bill Dobba of WSU is on a very hot seat these days. Mike Stoops looks like he'll be back at Arizona next season, but things can change dramatically in just a few weeks, so you never know. There are also persistent rumors that Jeff Tedford up at Cal could be lured away to another big time program.

Those are just the changes in conference. Nebraska, Texas A&M, Georgia Tech, Indiana, and almost a dozen other schools keep popping up in the news of teams looking for new direction. Of course, if those jobs get filled by current head coaches then that leaves another opening to fill somewhere else. Last year close to 20 head coaches were changed in the off season. The Bruins will have to compete with all of those programs in their search.

So why would a coach want to take the job in Westwood? Well there are definitely some positives. UCLA is in a major media market and any coach with even an inkling of going to the NFL would jump at the chance to have major media outlets just down the road. The Bruins also play in a BCS conference, which might be a draw for an up-and-coming coach or coordinator. UCLA is also smack dab in the middle of one of the hottest recruiting areas of the country. You could field an amazing team without ever leaving Southern California.

On the flip side is the coast of living. You earn less, in spending power, when you have to live in the LA area. UCLA hasn't historically payed it's head coaches or assistants very well either, which compounds that problem. Along with that low pay comes very high demands from the fans and it doesn't help that the football program plays a distant 2nd fiddle to the basketball team. As much as we hate to admit it, the football program doesn't exactly have great fan support and this isn't a fanbase that really travels well outside of California. The other big downside is that you have to live in the shadow of USC, which throws almost all of it's athletic resources into it's football team.

Still, a head coaching change at UCLA will draw a lot of interest. Guerrero might have to go courting some coaches and others may be banging down his door, but there will likely be a pretty big pool of candidates to choose from. Let's see if we can narrow down that list during this next week. Look for a new article on a different coach each day this week. Also, shoot me a name if you're really interested in somebody. I'll do my best to include them in my analysis.

Stick a Fork in Us

It was always a long shot, but UCLA did have a chance to win the conference if it swept it's last three games. That dream didn't last very long as the Bruins lost to ASU on Saturday. Sadly, that game was winnable, but the Bruins made some bone-headed mistakes. I guess that sums up our season: games we could have won, should have won... but didn't. Well, the season is officially over and UCLA really has little left to play for this year.

Bruce Davis gets the bone-head award for the night. His inexplicable late-hit at the end of the first half gave the Sun Devils a free shot at a field goal. Those 3 points forced UCLA to go for a touchdown at the end, instead of working into field goal range, and likely cost us the game. Christian Taylor made a similarly stupid mistake on 4th-and-long and only a timely turnover forced by Brian Price kept Arizona State out of the end zone.

Chris Meadows almost had the play of the night. He was wide open, I mean wide open, not a guy anywhere near him, and Brandon Breazell threw a beautiful pass to him. He was thinking three steps ahead and forgot he had to catch the ball first. Man, after I gave him some hype coming into the season, he let me down! Oh well, I guess you can't expect too much from a walk-on transfer who has barely played this season.

I guess the silver lining is that we are playing a lot of our younger guys. The backfield is all sophomores at this point with Moline, Rasshan, and Sheppard. Sheppard had a decent day with some solid runs averaging 4.7 yards a carry against one of the better defenses in the conference. Dominque Johnson is a soph and Terrance Austin, who virtually scored a touchdown on that punt return, still has two years of eligibility left. Not to mention that Forbath is just a freshman.

The really good news is that we get a bye next weekend. The Bruins need some time to lick their wounds and heal up. The only thing left to play for is some pride, a chance to play spoiler, and getting bowl eligible. You might say, "Why do I care about playing in some crappy bowl?", well it does give our guys some extra time to practice this year and one more game to gain some experience. With 2008 being a rebuilding season, we'll want these young guys to get as much playing time as possible.

It's amazing how far this team has fallen from it's pre-season ranking and BCS expectations. Now we're in an uphill battle just to get into the Poinsettia Bowl. With Oregon and USC still left on the schedule, even achieving that modest goal might be impossible.

Betting on the Bruins: Arizona State

I'll have to make this one quick. I like ASU on offense and defense in this one. The current spread is UCLA +7. I think the gamblers are giving the Bruins too much credit with Rasshan at QB. I think our boys are in big trouble. It might be close early but I expect the Sun Devils to take this one easily in the second half. I'm going with ASU minus the points. The over/under is 51.5. I'm liking the under because I think the Bruin defense will play well at home. ASU's defense is pretty good as well and I think the UCLA offense will have a very hard time moving the ball with the Sun Devils stacking against the run.

Bush Tapes Played

Well, well, well. If you haven't stayed up on the latest news from the Reggie Bush saga, here is what you need to know. Lloyd Lake, the wanna-be marketer and agent, has claimed for a long time that he had audio tapes that he secretly recorded of himself and Reggie Bush. These tapes, he claimed, showed that they had a financial relationship while he was still at USC. Trojan fans everywhere denied that such tapes existed. Fast forward to this week, and low and behold, Lake produced the tapes for the NCAA. In a six hour meeting, he played portions of the tapes for investigators. Finally, some tangible results from this investigation! It looks like it might be just a matter of time now before USC gets hit with sanctions, including having to forfeit games and possibly a national title. Good. It couldn't have happened to a more deserving program!

While You Weren't Watching

It's a busy time of year. The football team is still playing. Basketball is starting up. There's the NBA, NFL, MLB just wrapped up. So you may not have noticed what UCLA's former opponents have been doing since we played them. Here's a quick rundown of who's done what in the blue-and-gold wake.

We all know that Notre Dame stinks. They've been playing awful and just getting it handed to them each and every week. The national media has documented their struggles well and they've lost every one of their games, well except for one. Those loses weren't even close either. USC demolished them 38-0. Boston College whooped on 'em. But their worst lost came this last weekend when the Domers lost to Navy for the first time in 30+ years. By definition Navy has no NFL bound players because they're all signed up to go into the Navy after they graduate!!! This will probably end as one of the worst seasons in the 100+ years of Notre Dame football. How did we lose to these guys???

On a happier note BYU has done very well since we beat them back in week two. They lost a squeaker to Tulsa the very next Saturday but have since won 5 in a row and are atop the Mountain West standings. Utah has also been playing very well. They got back all of their starters (who were out with injury when they played us) and have also won 5 consecutive games. It looks like the Cougars and the Utes might have a big show down near the end of the season for the MWC championship.

Look Who's Talking

Today Llyod Lake is scheduled to talk to NCAA investigators about the Reggie Bush case. According to his attorney, Lake gave $291,600 in payments, lodging and other accommodations to Bush and his family from November 2004 to January 2006. If the NCAA finds all of Lake's evidence credible then they could rule Bush ineligible during that time frame. That would force USC to forfeit those games. This might be just what Karl Dorrell needs! He could get two more ticks in the win column for his time in Westwood against the hated Trojans. Maybe Karl should send Lake a gift basket.

The real question is will the investigators find any wrong doing by the University? There doesn't seem to be any direct links between Lake and Michaels (Bush's supposed agents) and the Trojan coaching staff. Even the attorneys involved say there was likely no contact or knowledge by Carroll and company. However, if the NCAA finds that Southern Cal should have know about these transgressions then they can still be held accountable. Not very likely, but the possibility still exists. We'll keep an eye on this and see what happens.

Payback

Hard to imagine anyone getting excited to play the Bruins, but it looks like at least one ASU fan is looking for a little payback.

Lucky Devils

I've always thought of Arizona State as being our close brothers in the conference. They've had their ups and downs, won a couple of championships along the way, but they've mainly hung around .500 this decade. Heck, their one big season (2004) ended with 3 loses and a Sun Bowl victory. It all sounds so familiar. Yet, ASU comes to play in the Rose Bowl this Saturday with an 8-1 record (their only lose to #3 Oregon) while UCLA is on trajectory for another mediocre season.

Let's see.. What's different in Tempe this year? The players? Not really, they got back some great offensive weapons like Torrain and Carpenter but lost a lot of defensive personnel coming into their 2007 campaign. Is it their schedule? Eight home games helps, and a cupcake filled OOC doesn't hurt, but the Sun Devils still play the same conference lineup as UCLA. Maybe the water? No, that's not it either. So what is it about this team that has them doing a 180 from their prior meandering ways? Dennis Erickson, that's what. What a difference a coach makes.

The Devils were a wildly inconsistent team under Dirk Koetter. They were always an offensive power but they could never muster a decent performance on defense. Even when their offense was clicking it would usually become one dimensional. Great passing one year, poor the next. There was the heart breaking last second defeat to LSU in 2005 and a humiliating blowout loss to Hawaii last season. The whole Rudy Carpenter vs Sam Keller debacle. Did I mention the "we surrender" punt against the Trojans in the coliseum? Until they beat Stanford this year, the Sun Devils hadn't won a game in California since 2002 when they played San Diego State. You had to go all the back to the Butch Snyder era for a conference victory in the Golden State (1999).

It's not for lack of talent that the Sun Devils sputtered. There was a point during this season that Sun Devil quarterbacks (or former Sun Devil quarterbacks) were starting at three different D1 programs. Sam Keller at Nebraska, Rudy Carpenter at ASU, and Max Hall at BYU. How many programs would kill for that kind of depth at QB? The talent and skill have been there, it just hasn't been utilized properly to produce wins.

Consistent inconsistency, as we all painfully know, is the sign of poor coaching. Well, those days may be over in Tempe. Erickson has brought this team into alignment for the first time in over a decade. The offense is producing, like you would expect, but it is balanced. ASU was 3rd in the conference in both rushing and passing numbers heading into last weekend. Their defense, however, has been the real story. The Devils used to run a bend-and-break defense before that would routinely give up huge yards, and points, to opposing teams. This year they rank first in a number of defensive categories with a #12 in the nation scoring defense. That hasn't been against the greatest competition, but ASU is beating the teams it is supposed to beat. Which is more than the Bruins can say.

Another intriguing element in this team is they way they respond and recover from adversity. ASU has trailed in almost all of their games this year. Against the Bears, they went down 13-0 before they adjusted. California didn't score a single point in the second half and ASU went on to outscore them 31-7. These aren't the last-minute, 4th-quarter, comebacks that the Bruins magically produced in 2005. This is a team that adjusts and adapts to it's opponents game plan and then shuts them down. You might call it luck, but I call it good coaching. Don't panic, do what you do, and perform. Even against a top-ranked Oregon team the Devils kept fighting.

Are the Sun Devils really for real? Who knows. ASU still has to play some tough games and they probably won't make the Rose Bowl. Still, for a first year coach, Erickson has his team believing in themselves. He brings decades of experience, but maybe more importantly, an expectation to win. He has won PAC-10 championships before. He's won national championships before. He's got a buzz and a positive vibe going in Tempe and you can just feel them gaining momentum after each victory. As UCLA stumbles through another season with Dorrell at the helm, Arizona State passes us by in the race to the top of the conference.

What a difference a year makes. What a difference a coach makes. Those lucky Devils.

(Photo credit: AP)

Too Little Too Late

The worst part about Saturday was watching Rashaan almost lead UCLA back to victory in this game. Not because he performed poorly. Oh quite the opposite... he looked pretty good. He is still raw, but there is some serious talent and heart there. What kills me is that this kid has sat unused on the sidelines while UCLA's season has been pissed down the drain. Chalk that up as yet another reason why Dorrell is gone at the end of the season.

I would have almost been happier if Osaar had come in and thrown 5 interceptions. Then, at least, I could have justified why the coaches played Mac Thompson against Notre Dame. "Hey, they didn't have any other options". But Rashaan comes in and leads UCLA on a 13-0 finish to the game. Just imagine what could have happened this season if they had put him in to that game against the Irish. What if they had put Rashaan in against WSU, even as late as the 4th quarter, when the Bruins were clearly going nowhere on offense. Hell, what if they just put him in earlier against the Wildcats?!?!

It absolutely kills me that Dorrell just won't make a change even when things are clearly going poorly. Everyone in that stadium and watching on TV knew that Cowan wasn't playing well. The poor kid has two leg injuries and sprained a finger, yet the coaches were sending him back in to the game. He was at less than 75% healthy but the coaching brain trust wouldn't pull the plug. No, they let 3-and-out after 3-and-out happen while the Wildcats put the game virtually out of reach. Only when Cowan goes down with a concussion are they finally forced to make a change and low and behold... the game changes and UCLA comes back. Absolutely unfreakin' believable.

Can anyone tell me why Rashaan wasn't the 3rd string QB at the start of this season? As soon as Cowan got hurt during the Fall camp they should have put Rashaan back into the rotation. When Ben was hurt and out with surgery, they should have been giving Osaar as many snaps in practice as possible to get him ready. Yet, for some inexplicable reason, they were still working with Mac and Chris Forcier over Rashaan. Forcier isn't even going to play this year!!! Only this last week did they finally move OR into the backup spot. Talk about having no clue on how to evaluate talent. No clue whatsoever. None.

Osaar Rashaan may not ever turn out to be a great QB. But he sure has hell is better than a non-scholarship walk-on and a less than 75% backup who had multiple leg injuries. This isn't Monday morning quarterbacking. People have been begging for OR to have a shot at playing for almost two seasons now. Only when Dorrell had no other choice does he finally listen. Look at the results. Too little too late. For the game, for the season, and likely for Karl's career in Westwood.

Betting on the Bruins: Arizona

So, who do you like more? The wildly inconsistent team with big wins and bad losses or the wildly inconsistent team with big wins and bad losses? That's the choice this week between UCLA and Arizona. The battle of the embattled coaches. The loser may very well lose his job at the end of the season.

Where is UCLA going to find any offense this week? Maybe Markey if his turf toe doesn't slow him down too much. At least Cowan got a full week of practice this time. Road game, and UCLA has been horrific on the road the last two years. Can the Bruins maintain some focus this time? Will all the injuries prevent this team from even having a chance? Can UCLA win?!? Let's see what the magic 8-ball says.

There ya go, folks. My years of following UCLA football, decades of watching and studying the game, and 6 months of running this blog have lead me to asking online magic 8-balls for advice on how the Bruins will perform. So, I'm going with UCLA minus the 2 points and whatever the under is. I don't even know the number, but does it really matter? It's going to be a defensive game. I just looked it up. 50 points. So, yeah, the under.

History

• WSU. O/U: 54.5. My pick: Under. Actual: 34. +$100.
• WSU. UCLA -6. My pick: UCLA minus the points. Actual: WSU +20. -$100.
• Cal: No line.
  
• ND. O/U: 48. My pick: Under. Actual: 26. +$100.
• ND. UCLA +20.5. My pick: Notre Dame plus points. Actual: ND +14. +$100.
• Org St. O/U: 54. My pick: Over. Actual: 54. Push.
• Org St. UCLA +2.5. My pick: Org St minus points. Actual: UCLA + 26. -$100.
• UW. O/U: 47. My pick: Under. Actual: 75. -$100.
• UW. UCLA -6.5. My pick: Washington plus points. Actual: UCLA + 13. -$100.
• Utah. O/U: 43.4. My pick: Over. Actual: 50. +$100.
• Utah. UCLA -14. My pick UCLA minus points. Actual: Utah +38. -$100.
• BYU. O/U: 46. My pick: Under. Actual: 44. +$100.
  
• BYU. ULCA -7.5. My pick: UCLA minus points. Actual: UCLA +10. +$100.
  
• Stanford. O/U: 46..5 My pick: Under. Actual: 62 . -$100.
  
• Stanford. UCLA -17. My pick: UCLA minus points. Actual: UCLA +28 =: +$100.
  

Disclaimer

I am not actually gambling on these games. This is entirely for fun. I know nothing about gambling and have no insider information. If you actually bet on these games using my predictions you are crazy and will likely lose all of your money