Trojans Should Beat Cal Tonight

let me just preface this by saying I'm pulling for the Bears in tonight 's big showdown with the Trojans. But USC should win this one. Here's why...

The Trojans have an offense that has racked up a lot of yards. They rank #1 in the conference in total offense (which is measured by yards gained). They can move the ball well.

Likewise, when it comes to total defense, they are ranked #2 in the conference. They can stop you from moving the ball.

The problem is they aren't moving the ball when they need to.

Despite being #1 in total offense, the Trojans only are only the 5th ranked team in term of scoring offense. A more shocking number is that USC ranks dead last in the conference in 3rd down conversion percentage.

The other big problem is turnovers. They have a turnover margin of -2 right now. That's good for 8th place in the conference.

They are a team with plenty of horse power, but the engine isn't firing on all cylinders right now.

With Carroll at the helm, it's just a mater of time before SC puts it all together for a game.

I think they do that tonight against a suspect Cal defense.

Odd Bears are all Quacked Up

It must be an odd numbered year. Why? Because a top-10 ranked Cal team just embarrassed itself by losing to an inferior opponent... again. Here is their illustrious history over the last few odd-numbered seasons...

2009:

Start the preseason ranked #12. Go 3-0. In week-4, #6 Cal travels to unranked Oregon. A colossal loss of 42-3 plays out on national TV. The Bears fall to #24 in the AP poll immediately after the game.

2007:

Started preseason ranked #12. Went 5-0. In week 6, #2 Cal hosted Oregon St. Just before kickoff top ranked LSU lost, all but guaranteeing Berkley the #1 slot if they can beat the Beavers at home. Inspired, they take the field and lose 31- 28. The Bears go on an epic slide, losing to UCLA the following week, and finishing the season 6-6 and unranked.

2005:

Another preason ranking, this time #19. Another good start... going 5-0 and climbing to #10 in the polls. The Bears head south and get beat by #20 UCLA 47-40 on the amazing special teams work of Maurice Drew. Cal finishes the season 8-4 and manages to squeak back into the rankings at #25.

Sometimes history is just destined to repeat itself.

A Time for Change?

Should Kevin Craft get the hook next week? Will Chris Forcier be any better? After a dismal performance tonight against the Bears, including 4 picks and 12 points for the Cal defense, it is hard to imagine Forcier being any worse. Giving C-Force a few more snaps might not be such a bad idea.

I've been a Craft supporter this season. He's been madeningly inconsistant, but at times he puts together some amazing drives. But I think his luck (and my patience) are starting to run out. That's right... luck. He was lucky that he didn't have 4 picks and a blow-out loss against Oregon. Even against Stanford it was feast or famine for Kevin. His tendency to throw interceptions is really hurting this team and this week was another example of that.

I think getting Forcier into the mix is a good idea. He might not be the best QB... he might even be worse than Craft. But we're losing games with Kevin behind center. Trying to dig out of early deficiets and putting our defense in bad field position is killing this team. If Forcier can at least manage the game and use his feet to keep drives alive... then that would be a big improvement. I say we give Chris a few extra snaps during the bye week and get him ready to play against the Beavers.

Bears Going with Two Quarterbacks?

Interesting story on ESPN. Looks like Cal might be platooning their quarterbacks this season. But for the opener, Kevin Riley (last years' backup) is getting the starting nod over senior Nate Longshore.

Opponent Spring Practices

Spring practice wrapped up last week and all our opponents have completed their sessions as well. Here is a look at the news stories coming out of those camps and what our boys might expect to face this fall.

Tennessee

The Vols have spent some time retooling their offense as well this April. Like the Bruins, Tennessee heads into the 2008 season with a new coordinator, three other new offensive assistants, a new scheme, new terminology and a new quarterback. Jonathan Crompton, a red-shirt junior, is the likely starter for the fall. He will be out of action for the next month after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his throwing elbow.

There will be more of an emphasis on the running game this time around and the Volunteers have a good one in Arian Foster. The Vols return all five offensive line starters from last season and they will provide a big front for Foster, who's closing in on Tennessee's all-time rushing record.

BYU

The Cougars return a very potent and experienced offense this season. One area to watch is their offensive line. A big and powerful group last season, they've been dinged by the injury bug this spring. BYU returns a lot of players at the skill positions including QB Max Hall who had good games against UCLA last season. Junior wide receiver Austin Collie had a good spring and he'll challenge the Bruin's inexperienced secondary this fall.

On defense, the Cougars lose standouts Kelly Popinga and Bryan Kehl. Following in their footsteps, junior Matt Bauman has asserted himself as the new leader of the linebacking corps. He had a good spring and the BYU defense is starting to gel despite not returning many players from last year's squad. Their secondary is young and there might be an opportunity for our offense to throw on them this year.


Fresno State

One of the goals of the spring for Fresno State was to add some depth to a team that returns 10 starters on offense. To help fascilitate that, the veterans didn't see a lot of reps during the scrimmage. QB Tom Brandstater only had 5 pass attempts while his backup took most of the snaps behind center. The Bulldogs have a new offensive coordinator his season in Doug Nussmeier and it will be interesting to see if he opens up an FSU offense mainly known for a strong running game. They have a lot of experience along the line, though many of those starters missed time this spring with nagging injuries.

While the offense is mainly set, the defense has some had some holes to fill this spring. The Bulldogs lost Marcus Riley and Trevor Shamblee, two of their best linebackers. In their place, a host of young players are looking to fill those spots. They also have to fill the shoes of Tyler Clutts, one of their best defensive ends. They don't really have any super stars on this side of the ball and they lack a true leader.

Arizona

The Wildcats remind me a lot of our own team. An inconsistent offense. A defense without any big super stars. They're a work in progress that always seems to be rebuilding each and every season and this team is still struggling to learn the air-raid offense installed last season.

One area where the Wildcats will have some experience is at quarterback. Willie Tuitama is back for his third season and he had a decent spring. He threw for 231 yards on 20 completions out of 36 attempts and one touchdown during the spring game. The running game looks decent and their offense could be exciting if it really gets going.

The defensive side is going to struggle this season. They have a lot of new faces and not a lot of a talent. They lose two of the best corners in the league with Antoine Cason and Wilrey Fontenot departing. They do have some guys stepping up in Devin Ross and sophomore Mike Turner; both had good springs. Highly regarded recruit, Robert Golden, is coming in the fall to add some depth in the secondary.

Arizona State

ASU had a break-out season last year, but will they continue with that success in 2008? RB Shaun DeWitty adds some depth to the Sun Devil's running game. Along with Keegan Herring, this team should continue to perform well on the ground. Carpenter was only able to complete 7-of-21 passes for 88 yards in their spring game. They still have a lot of problems with their offensive line and it doesn't look like they've solved those problems yet.

Erickson looks to add more of a spread-element to his offensive strategy. The team practiced with more four and five-receiver sets and tailback screens this spring. ASU might be making a name for itself as a defensive team this season. The defense was impressive throughout spring and dominated the spring game.

USC

Across town, the Trojans are getting ready for another dominating season. They had a battle at quarterback that everyone knew would end in Mark Sanchez getting the starting job. So it was no surprise when he came out of the spring game as the leader. Mitch Mustain and Aaron Corp held their own, though, and the Trojans look loaded at the position for the foreseeable future.

One big piece of news was that Joe McKnight ended up missing the last week of practice because of eligibility problems. Those likely won't translate into him missing time this fall but it did give the other running backs a chance to shine. The leaders at running back for next season would be C.J. Gable, Staffon Johnson, and Allen Bradford.

On defense, junior cornerback Kevin Thomas, who missed the 2007 season because of a shoulder injury, has played well during the spring. He's already worked his way into the Trojans' third cornerback spot and he has the potential to take the job from starters Cary Harris and Shareece Wright.

California

The Bears had a lot of questions to answer this spring. The biggest one is who will be the starting quarterback? Nate Longshore has a lot of experience but he struggled mightily in Cal's downward spiral last season. Kevin Riley had his fair share of struggles as well, but he impressed in their bowl victory over Air Force. Unfortunately, Longshore missed the entire spring because of a pectoral injury. The decision, according to coach Tedford, could come as late as the week before their home opener.

Injures have also set back other skill positions on offense. Running back Javid Best is out with a hip injury. Which hurts because the Bears lost James Montgomery this off season when he transfered to WSU. Wide receiver Jeremy Ross is also sidelined with a sprained ankle. That leaves a lot of inexperienced guys getting playing time this spring and a lot of unresolved questions on the depth chart.

On defense, the Bears have been using a three man front during the spring. Redshirt freshman Bryan Anger has been wowing onlookers with his punting ability. He should help their special teams unit this fall.

Stanford

Like so many teams in the conference, the Cardinal are searching for a starting quarterback for the 2008 season. Tavita Pricthard, who lead them to their huge victory over the Trojans in the Coliseum last season, is the front runner at this point. He struggled, however, in their spring scrimmage where he only completed 12 of 28 passes for 106 yards. That leaves an opening for Alex Loukas and transfer Jason Forcier (Chris Forcier's brother).

Oregon

No team in the PAC-10 lost more offensive weapons this past season than the Ducks. The dynamic duo of Dixon and Stewart won't be wearing their Oregon uniforms this season and that has left the Eugene faithful asking a lot of questions about their backfield. They may of gotten at least one answer in LeGarrette Blout. The Duck's running game got a boost from the big, 235 lb running back. He bulldozed his way to 68 yards on just 5 carries during their spring scrimmage and he's drawing high praise and favorable comparisons to Stewart.

Oregon State

Oregon State struggled on offense last year but their defense kept them in a lot of games. Unfortunately for the Beaver Believers, that sturdy defense front seven won't be back this season. They did have some depth at linebacker and it looks like some young talent, including Keaton Kristick, Bryant Cornell, and Dwight Roberson will be an adequate replacement.

On offense, the Orange and Black get back standout receiver and return-man Sammie Stroughter. He'll be a big boost to a passing attack that had it's ups and downs last season under first-year quarterback Sean Canfield. Also back from injury is guard Jeremy Perry who missed all but one game in 2007 because of a broken leg. The rest of the offense was hit pretty hard by graduation, including the loss of running back Yvenson Bernard. They'll have a lot to work out this fall if they want to stay in the top-half of the conference standings.

Washington

The Huskies were delt a tough blow when they lost their best offensive lineman in center Juan Garcia with a foot injury this spring. A 6th year senior, Garcia was a second-team, all-conference selection last year, starting every game at center for the second consecutive year. Their line will be young and inexperienced, so it makes the loss of a seasoned veteran hurt even more.

After missing on hiring DeWayne Walker away from UCLA, the Huskies hired Ed Donatell, who spent 12 of the previous 13 seasons coaching in the NFL. Their defense will likely be a work in progress this season as their defensive line losses many of their starters. The Huskies are hoping to tap into some of their true freshman who enroll this fall at defensive tackle. That's not a good sign for the Dawgs as freshman rarely make an impact on the line.

Washington State

One of the stars of the Cougar's spring scrimmage was Michael Willis. The converted defensive back has been moved to wide receiver for the 2008 season. Willis pulled down 6 receptions for 129 yards and a touchdown during the game and he could be a another big target along with talented receiver Bradnon Gibson. Of course the Cougs still need to find a quarterback who can throw to these guys. Fifth year senior Gary Rodgers is the heir apparent to Alex Brink but he could be challenged by junior Kevin Lopina, who had a solid spring.

Head coach Paul Wulff is also introducing a new no-huddle spread offense this season. He'll run that offense behind a veteran line that returns four starters but no stars at running back. Things are so thin at tail back that when the spring session ended, WSU only had one healthy player available. Chris Ivory missed part of the spring with injury and he has also struggled to stay academically eligible. Dwight Tardy also watched the rest of the team from the sidelines due to injury.

Wulff and his staff switched to a new 4-3 defense moving standout linebacker Andy Mattingly to defensive end. This squad has struggled with depth and injuries in the past and they still need to find players in their two deep after the spring. WSU' returns three returning senior starters at linebacker including Greg Trent but their secondary has a lot of holes.

(Photo Credit: AP Photo/Wade Payne. Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

2007 Preview: California Bears

After a bye, the Bruins will return to action in the 7th week of the season against the Cal Bears. Most pre-season magazines and polls have UCLA and Cal in a virtual tie for second place in the conference. This will be an absolutely crucial game for both teams and a likely must-win scenario if either program has dreams of taking the conference crown away from the Trojans. It has been a competitive series over the last decade with the home team coming away with a victory in the last seven meetings.

The Bears had a great 2006 campaign, racking up double digit wins, a conference co-championship, and an impressive Holiday Bowl beat down on Texas A&M. The key to their success was a high-powered offense that was able to compensate for a less-than-stellar defense. They still retain much of that offensive fire power but the other side of the ball will have quite a few new faces this season.

The high flying Bear's offense will match up against a very good UCLA defense. Walker and his squad were, unfortunately, out schemed and out played last year at Strawberry Canyon. I think this year they will come into the game much more aggressive and eager to atone for last season's defeat. The Bruin offense actually put up some big numbers last year, racking up a season high 516 yards against Tedford and company. However, they struggled to get the ball in the end zone and failed to capitalize on some good drives. The big question for this game is who will improve the most, UCLA's offense or the Cal defense? The answer will likely be the winner of the matchup, as well.

Offense

The Bears experimented with a "Ted-Spread" offense last season with some mixed results. This year there might be a little less spread, but the Bears are still focusing their offense through junior quarterback Nate Longshore. They'll also ask a lot form their versatile running backs and receivers as the Bears passing attack will again be very potent. They introduce a new offensive coordinator, Jim Michalczik, but Tedford is still the mastermind of this offense.

Nate Longshore is back behind center. In his first full season for the Bears he put up a very impressive 3,021 yards with 24 touchdowns. He also had the second best pass efficiency rating in he conference and the Bears will rely on Longshore's arm to win a lot of games this year. The one troubling number was the 13 interceptions. The Bruin secondary is going to have to try and take a ball or two away from the Bears and the opportunity is there.

The big loss for Berkeley was the early departure of Marshawn Lynch to the NFL. Lynch was a key component of the offense and he won't be easily replaced. Justin Forsett will step into the starting role for the first time, but he brings a lot of experience and physical ability to the position. The one question mark is his size. He's 5'8" and 185 lbs and he'll take a lot more punishment as the feature back this season. Joining him in the rotation will be two red-shirt freshman. James Montgomery and Tracy Solcum are the top contenders for the second tailback role and both bring a little more size and physical play than Forsett. The Bear's running game may not be as threatening this time, but the Bruin front seven will still have their hands full.

DeSean Jackson is still the headliner for the Bears at receiver and he is getting some pre-season Heisman hype. He is a big play and deep ball threat and his speed and natural ability makes him a very difficult matchup. Joining him is Robert Jordan who has a ton of experience and runs great routes and Lavelle Hawkins who is primed for an All American season. The Bruins tried to give a little more help to the corners last year and the zone matchups they employed were not very effective. Expect a much more aggresive, blitzing attack this year and that's going to leave Trey Brown and Rodney Van in more man-to-man coverage. They're going to have to bring their best game of the whole season if they expect to keep this unit in check.

The Bears have always had very good offensive lines and this season should be no exception. They do have to replace two of last year's starters, but they get back center Alex Mack. Mack was a first team PAC-10 selection and one of the best centers in the country. Despite that, the Berkeley coaches have considered moving him to tackle to allow talented backup Chris Guarnero to get on the field. Senior Mike Gibson and junior Mike Tepper are back. UCLA got almost no pressure on Longshore last year and the Bruin's defensive line is going to have to step-up and put a lot more heat on the Bear's quarterback.

Defense

The Cal defense gave up a lot of yards last year, ranking their total defense 8th in the conference. The flip-side of that number is that the Bears stood strong when required and had a surprisingly good scoring defense, second only to USC in the PAC-10. This bend-don't-break defense will be challenged this season as they need to replace three big stars and the vast majority of their front seven. When they come to Pasadena in the seventh week of the season, those new faces may not be so new anymore, but there still won't be a ton of experience on this side of the ball.

The D-line loses their big play maker and star tackle in Brandon Mebane. This unit will be starting almost from scratch having to replace three of last year's four starters. The sole returning player is the big man in the middle, defense tackle Matt Malele. The big 335 lb senior will be starting for the 3rd season in a row and he'll have to shepherd along the new guys. Mika Kane has played in the rotation the last two years and this will be his opportunity to really step up and prove himself. The ends, Tyson Alualu and Cody Jones, are young but Alualu brings a lot of size and Jones some speed. An experienced Bruin line should be able to provide better running lanes over last season's effort. Chris Markey had some nice holes and even cranked out a big 70-yard run for a TD up in Strawberry Cannon. He'll be asked to gain some yards in big chunks this time as well.

The Bear's lose two linebackers to graduation including Mickey Pimentel and standout Desmond Bishop. That might concern some teams but Cal has such a talented and experienced set of backups that there will likely be little to no drop-off this season. Worrell Williams is the sole returning starter and he'll be moving to the middle linebacker spot in Bear's 4-3. Anthony Felder and Zack Follett will be the new starters, but Follett is hardly a new face. He racked up 62 tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks and four forced fumbles as a reserve last season. That effort was good enough to earn him a spot on the All Pac-10 team.

The biggest loss on defense was the departure of Daymeion Hughes to the NFL. This secondary has some talent but nobody will be able to replace Hughes. Syd'Quan Thompson is back at the other corner spot and Bernard Hicks returns at strong safety. Ben is a much better passer than Pat and he should be able to move the ball through the air in this game as well. We'll have to see how this unit handles the departure of Hughes and if the young blood can gel by week 7. If not then the Bruin passing attack under Norvell's pass-first strategy could garner UCLA some big gains.

Special Teams

Cal has struggled in this area in the past, and big punt returns by Maurice Drew absolutely killed Tedford's team back in 2005. That all changed last season and the Bears return probably the best special teams unit in the PAC-10 in 2007. The kicking game is very good with the return of the consistent Tom Schneider. The Bears also return punter Andrew Larson, who's 42.6 yard average, is almost identical to Aaron Perez.

Desean Jackson had an amazing four punt return touchdowns last year, including that big return against the Bruins that put the game out of reach. Perez will have to work on directing the ball away from Jackson. Forsett could take the kick return role and he's already proven to be a big play maker.


The Verdict

I've gone back and forth in my head on this one so many times I'm dizzy. Both teams have strengths and weaknesses that are the opposite of the other. Cal has a great offense and the Bruins have a stout defense. UCLA has a lot of veterans and Cal has some exciting young players. The Bruins have home field advantage and UCLA has been very tough to beat at home over the last two years. The Bears special teams unit could crank out another big play to push the game in Berkeley's favor.

In the end I'm going to give the nod to the Bruins, but just barely. I think this one comes down to the 4th quarter and I like all of the experienced UCLA seniors in that kind of scenario. I think a more aggressive Bruin defense will slow down Cal's offense and the Bears inexperienced defense will be just slightly less effective at stopping an improved Bruin offense. UCLA also has an extra week to prepare for this game and they were awesome against the Trojans last year with the extra time. Things could change by the time we get to this point in the season and predicting this far in advance is never easy.

CalPoly's Prediction: Bruin victory. (6-1, 3-1)

The Bear Brief

Recruiting rankings for the last 4 years (Scout.com is the first number, Rivals.com is the second):

2007: #12, #22, 25 commits
2006: #23, #19, 20 commits
2005: #09, #09, 24 commits
2004: #29, #23, 19 commits

2006 statistical rankings (National ranking is the first number, PAC-10 rank is the second):

Total Offense : 12, 2.
Scoring Offense: 11, 1.
Rushing Offense: 33, 3.
Passing Offense: 17, 3.
Total Defense : 91, 8.
Scoring Defense: 32, 2.
Rushing Defense: 47, 7.
Passing Defense: 50, 5.

Game info:
September 29. Time and TV package are still TBD.

More Reading

• ESPN PAC-10 Spring Guide.
• ESPN PAC-10 Spring Wrap Up.
• USA Today Cal Inside Slant.
• CFN 2007 Preview of California.
• Cal 2006 NCAA Stats.
  
• California 2006 Bruin Roar football Stats.
  

(photo credit: Ghetty Images)