Saturday, December 12, 2009
Go Navy Beat Army!
Sunday, November 29, 2009
UCLA’s Bowl hopes could come down to Notre Dame decision
This weekend brought mixed results for a UCLA at-large bid. Wyoming and UConn both won, closing off two open bowl slots. But the teams looking to get to seven wins in the hope of securing the other remaining open bowl slots mostly lost.
Right now there are five six-win teams looking to fill two slots.
Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe are not particularly attractive options for bowl committees, especially for something like the Humanitarian Bowl.
Conference USA has a contingency agreement to fill the EagleBank Bowl should Army lose this week, allowing six-win Marshall to go bowling.
That leaves Notre Dame and UCLA.
The Irish are a more attractive option, for sure. The question now becomes: Will Notre Dame accept an invitation to a lesser bowl during a very likely coaching transition? If the Irish turn-down a bid, then it’s likely the Humanitarian will invite UCLA.
The spoiler right now is Hawaii. After upsetting Navy at home this week, they get a crack at seven wins against Wisconsin, and a guaranteed slot in the Hawaii Bowl should they pull another upset. That would leave an at-large, seven-win WAC team, which would then cascade a number of bowl changes, leaving no place for UCLA.
Saturday, November 28, 2009
10 Reasons
1. Momentum
The Bruins are 3-0 in their last 3 games. USC is only 1-2. Granted, the level of competition wasn't nearly the same... but momentum can be a big thing.
2. Turnovers
We need 'em. Last week against ASU, UCLA was +6 on turnovers. We'll have to win the turnover battle at the Coliseum to come out with a victory.
3. Getting Defensive
The UCLA defense was dominant last week. The USC defense has been porous. If the Bruin defense comes to play and keeps this one a low scoring contest... then our chances of victory are much improved.
4. We're Wearing our Home Jerseys!
The game might not be at the Rose Bowl, but we'll be in our home blue. UCLA has historically done very well against USC wearing the home jersey. Maybe that streak will continue.
5. The Price is Right
Brian Price demands double teams. Brian Price still gets tackles for loss. Brian Price is sooo going to the NFL next year. But this year... he's wearing blue and gold.
6. Pick-6
Alteraun Verner and Rahim Moore have been interception machines this season. Matt Barkley has also been turnover prone this last month. A defensive touchdown for the Bruins would be a huge boost for this team.
7. The BCS is Bust
The Trojans won't be going to a BCS game this year. That's the first time that has happened in a very long while. They may not have much motivation, as in years past, to come out play. What's the difference between the Sun and Vegas bowls? Not much for the ketchup and mustard...
8. Rusty
Sometimes a bye week can help your team heal and get focused. Other times, it can let your team dwell on a poor performance. USC has been idle since the got whooped soundly by the Cardinal. They might need to shake a little rust off at the start of this game.
9. Play not to Lose
The Bruin offense and the coaching staff did a great job of sitting on a lead and riding that to victory last week. An early start to this contest would go a long way to improving our chances for a win.
10. Play to Win
Kevin Prince has been slinging the ball lately. His new found confidence to let the rock fly has been one of the key reasons this offense has been more productive. UCLA has nothing to lose today and everything to gain... play for the win!
Friday, November 27, 2009
Breaking Down UCLA's Bowl Chances
Scenario 1: Poinsettia Bowl
There is a small chance that UCLA could finish tied for sixth place in conference, potentially receiving an invitation to the Poinsettia Bowl, the last of the Pac-10’s six bowl tie-ins.
If UCLA beats USC, and the Trojans lose their final game to Arizona, USC and UCLA would (unbelievably) be tied. Alternately, if the Bruins beat USC, and Arizona loses its final two games, the Bruins and Wildcats would finish tied. In fact, should UCLA and Arizona State both win this Saturday, UCLA would be guaranteed a sixth-place tie with the loser of the Arizona-USC game the following week.
Even if UCLA winds up tied for sixth, however, that merely gives the Poinsettia Committee the option of selecting UCLA. There is no tie-breaker rule for the lower-level bowls like there is for the Rose Bowl. The Poinsettia can choose whomever they like among any teams tied for sixth in the Pac-10, presumably based on which one they feel would provide the better TV ratings and ticket sales.
Root against Arizona
The Poinsettia would almost surely pick USC over anyone else, since they are a huge draw. But the Bruins would likely get a nod over Arizona. So we want to be tied with the Wildcats. After two big, disappointing loses, Arizona is only three-point favorites on the road this week against Arizona State, and will finish the season at USC.
Scenario 2: Seven wins, At-large bowl bid
The Poinsettia is a long shot. UCLA is most likely facing an at-large bowl bid. There is, of course, no guarantee the Bruins get an invite, so several things need to work in our favor.
First things first, though. NCAA rules require bowls looking for at-large replacements to select seven-win teams ahead of six-win teams. Bragging rights aside, beating USC this week gets UCLA to seven wins, and therefore puts them at the front of the line for any open bowl slots.
In fact, it would all but guarantee UCLA an invite, likely from the Humanitarian.
Scenario 3: Six wins, At-large bowl bid
This is probably the most likely scenario anyway, so let’s focus on it. It’s still possible for UCLA to land a bowl game with six wins. But it would be a steep climb.
The formula is simple: We need as many conferences as possible to not fill their bowl obligations, opening up potential slots for UCLA to play. And we need as few teams with seven wins as possible, keeping them from bumping UCLA out of those spots.
Potential slots
Up to eight bowl slots could become available this season for at-large teams. The ACC will definitely not fill two of its obligations, the EagleBank and GMAC Bowls. Depending on how things turn out, up to six additional bowls – the Humanitarian, New Mexico, St. Petersburg, Pizza, Texas, and the GMAC (in search of a second team) -- might be looking for replacements as well.
Cheer for TCU and Boise State
The best thing working for UCLA right now in terms of an at-large bowl bid is TCU and Boise State. If both the Horned Frogs and the Broncos win their final games, they can get at-large BCS bowl invites.
Not only does that open-up additional bowl spots, but, more importantly, it opens up western bowls, as the WAC and Mountain West would have two fewer teams to fill their bowl tie-ins. Bowls in the west would naturally prefer to have western teams in order to maximize interest and attendance. UCLA is much more likely to get an invite to the Humanitarian or New Mexico Bowl than any bowl game east of the Mississippi. These are prime spots for the Bruins.
Both TCU and Boise State are at home this week. TCU has an almost guaranteed win against New Mexico – they are 44 point favorites! Boise State faces a much tougher test in Nevada, although are 14-point favorites.
Root against Wyoming, Hawaii, Army, Kansas, and UConn
All of these schools have five wins right now. Those that get to six (in Hawaii’s case seven) will receive automatic bowl berths by virtue of their conference tie-ins.
A Wyoming loss is the most important, since a win would put the Cowboys in the New Mexico Bowl, one of the two available bowls out west. Wyoming finishes their season against a Colorado State team still looking for its first conference win. This is a rivalry game, though, and the Rams are at home. The Cowboys are actually three-point dogs.
Hawaii is also important, since a seven-win Hawaii team gets an automatic invite to the Hawaii Bowl. They face a tough contest this week at home against Navy, who are 10-point favorites, and would need another win over a very good Wisconsin squad the following week at home to qualify. If they lose either game, the WAC would fill their spot with another eligible team, which would leave no additional at-large WAC teams to fill those western bowls.
Kansas, UConn, and Army losses are helpful in that at-large eastern schools would likely fill these bowl spots before coming out west. Kansas is three-point underdogs against rival Missouri in their season finale. Connecticut has two games left on their schedule. They face a likely win against Syracuse at home this week, and are 14-point favorites. They have a second (although more difficult) chance for a win next week at home against South Florida. Army takes on Navy in two weeks, and will be underdogs.
Teams to fill them
There are a number of at-large teams with six wins or better right now. Some teams are virtually guaranteed bowl slots by virtue of contingency contracts – Bowling Green will probably go to the GEAC and Middle Tennessee to one of the SEC’s unfilled bowls, assuming the SEC sends two teams to the BCS. There are also a handful of teams at five wins that could become bowl eligible this week.
But we’ll focus on the most likely competition to fill the above bowl slots.
Northern Illinois is already at seven wins, with an outside shot at getting to eight. They are almost certainly going bowling, it’s just a question of where.
Notre Dame is an almost certain lock to get a bowl, too, since they are such a huge television draw. They will be the first six-win team chosen, if they can’t get to seven, you can bank on that. Stanford should handle them on the Farm this week in any case.
Cheer against UAB, SMU, and Marshall
Conference USA has contingency contracts to fill Army’s spot in the GMAC and the Big-12’s spot in the Texas Bowl should those become available. They can fill Army’s spot now, but don’t (currently) have a seventh team to take the Big-12 slot. UAB can get there with a win over Central Florida at home this week. The Blazers are three-point dogs.
In a worst case scenario -- should Army and Kansas win their final games -- all three of these C-USA teams will be at-large. SMU and Marshall have six wins. Keeping both at that mark means less seven-win teams looking for an invite. Southern Methodist is heavily favored (-17) at home this week against a perennially terrible Tulane team. Marshall plays at UTEP in a toss-up.
Cheer against Louisiana-Monroe and Louisiana-Lafayette
These two schools have six wins, but the Sun Belt has already filled its lone bowl obligation, and will likely put its second-place team into the SEC’s open spot. If these teams get to seven wins, they would get invites over a six-win UCLA squad.
This is an exciting weekend for the Sun Belt, as their best teams go toe-to-toe. Monroe will be at home against second-place Middle Tennessee, who is only favored by three. Lafayette is nine-point dogs at home against the conference leader, Troy. Bowling Green is eight-point favorites in their MAC finale at home against Toledo.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
One Step Forward...
If Kevin Prince didn't break his jaw against Tennessee, missing the next two games, where would this offense be right now? If Prince went for a slide instead of putting his head down and getting that helmet-to-helmet hit yesterday, where would the offense have finished yesterday?
It was great to get a win yesterday. It was even better watching the offense roll on it's first two drives of the game to touchdowns.
If we could just find some consistency and health at the quarterback position, that could be the regular state of affairs on Saturday.
Let's just hope that Kevin Prince gets a clean bill of health this week and can play out the rest of the season. If he can finish strong, it will really boost the confidence of this team for next season.
If he can't get back out there then this team might be starting over at QB. Again. For like the bazillionth time.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Must Win
The good news, if you can find that silver lining in the Oregon State game, was an offense that seemed to come alive in that 4th quarter. Nelson Rosario made some huge plays and UCLA has desperately needed a play maker like that at receiver.
Kevin Prince looked like a gunslinger as well. We finally got a glimpse of why the coaches were excited about Prince coming into the season.
The question is will that offensive juice keep flowing the rest of the season?
November lines up nicely for the Bruins with a favorable schedule. With UW, WSU, and Arizona State up next, the Bruins are hitting the bottom half of the PAC-10. None of those games are gimmes, but each are entirely winnable.
SC has definitely fallen from their pedistal atop the conference, but they are still a very talented and dangerous team. I don't see the Bruins walking into the coliseum and having a good chance to win that game.
So that leaves the next 3 games. A short 3-game season that UCLA will have to sweep if any post season dreams are going to come true.
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Trojans Should Beat Cal Tonight
The Trojans have an offense that has racked up a lot of yards. They rank #1 in the conference in total offense (which is measured by yards gained). They can move the ball well.
Likewise, when it comes to total defense, they are ranked #2 in the conference. They can stop you from moving the ball.
The problem is they aren't moving the ball when they need to.
Despite being #1 in total offense, the Trojans only are only the 5th ranked team in term of scoring offense. A more shocking number is that USC ranks dead last in the conference in 3rd down conversion percentage.
The other big problem is turnovers. They have a turnover margin of -2 right now. That's good for 8th place in the conference.
They are a team with plenty of horse power, but the engine isn't firing on all cylinders right now.
With Carroll at the helm, it's just a mater of time before SC puts it all together for a game.
I think they do that tonight against a suspect Cal defense.
Pressure is on the Offense
The short answer is: no. They can't.
I don't think any defense can really stop someone as talented as Gerhart. He'll get his yards and points and there really isn't anything you can do about it.
That's why I think the real story is the Bruin's offense.
Can Craft and Franklin and the young line put together enough drives to out score the Cardinal? Our defense will limit Stanford, that's for sure, but our offense will have to deliver if we're going to come out of this one with a win.
The best case senario would be some early scores on offense to put the pressure on Luck and the Stanford passing game. The best way to prevent the Gerhart from running wild on you is to keep the ball out of his hands in the first place.
That will be a tall order indeed.
The biggest weakness on the Cardinal defense is their secondary. Craft doesn't have the arm to really challenge them deep. Somehow UCLA has to find ways to get the ball out into space away form the Stanford front seven.
I think if the Bruins can play well on offense then our defense will keep the Cardinal under 20 points. That's 3 touchdowns for the Bruins to win.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Upside Down
For the first time in years, the PAC-10 is wide open.
Cal got whooped by a Ducks team that looked dead in the water just a few weeks ago. USC is 1-1 in conference play with a loss and an ugly win over the two cellar dwellers from last season. Cal hosts USC next week in a game that looked much more interesting 2 weeks ago.
Meanwhile, Stanford beat up the Huskies, who were still hung over from their win against the Trojans. Jim Harbaugh has the opportunity to take his team to a 4-1 (3-0) record for the first time in who knows how long.
Even Arizona is up at the top with their win over Oregon State last night.
This is one of those seasons where almost anyone could win the conference. I'm sure SC is still the odds on favorite, but it wouldn't surprise me to see multiple teams share the conference crown this year.
Oh, did I mention that UCLA is the only remaining undefeated team in the conference?
Ah yeah.
Next week should shake things up even more, with the Bruins and Sun Devils opening up conference play against Stanford and Oregon State.
Odd Bears are all Quacked Up
2009:
Start the preseason ranked #12. Go 3-0. In week-4, #6 Cal travels to unranked Oregon. A colossal loss of 42-3 plays out on national TV. The Bears fall to #24 in the AP poll immediately after the game.
2007:
Started preseason ranked #12. Went 5-0. In week 6, #2 Cal hosted Oregon St. Just before kickoff top ranked LSU lost, all but guaranteeing Berkley the #1 slot if they can beat the Beavers at home. Inspired, they take the field and lose 31- 28. The Bears go on an epic slide, losing to UCLA the following week, and finishing the season 6-6 and unranked.
2005:
Another preason ranking, this time #19. Another good start... going 5-0 and climbing to #10 in the polls. The Bears head south and get beat by #20 UCLA 47-40 on the amazing special teams work of Maurice Drew. Cal finishes the season 8-4 and manages to squeak back into the rankings at #25.
Sometimes history is just destined to repeat itself.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
YouTubing the SC Defeat @ Seattle
The winning field goal:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HV_EUqy9_sg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1Wup1gwxXQ
Rushing the field:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiy-O5zk8kk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlo5ekrSYI4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GkPS0OZS0o
Celebrating on the field:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mib9RgPe6G8
Taking it all in:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzneB5ULI_4
Play Within Yourself
Craft can't make long passes. He doesn't have the arm strength. But on short to medium routes, he's pretty good.
Craft can't carry the team to victory. He's a game manager. He gets into trouble when he tries to make something out of nothing. He forces passes into coverage, or just flat out makes throws he shouldn't.
When Kevin relaxes and plays calm, he's actually pretty good. He just gets worked up at times and starts making bone-headed mistakes.
This is why Prince is our future. His total numbers aren't much better than Craft, but he has the arm to throw the long ball and he doesn't try and force passes into bad situations.
I thought Craft did OK last night. I want Prince back ASAP, but Craft played decent. He was about 50-50. Half the game was good, the other half wasn't. That was better than mos of the games from last year.
Winning Ugly
So, Kevin Craft played the entire game. With a better supporting cast around him this season, Craft rarely had to go running for his life like he did on almost every snap last year.
In the first quarter, Kevin looked down right composed. He stood tall in the pocket, connecting on the vast majority of his passes, and he had plenty of time to find the open receiver. Franklin and the running game also took pressure of the senior signal caller, as they ran through massive holes in the line.
However, Craft also slipped into the inconsistent, poor decision making play that plagued him last season. The offense as a whole struggled through most of the 2nd and 3rd quarter. Settling for field goals and 3-and-outs. A big 51-yard TD pass to Austin, on broken coverage, ended the drought and put the game into the win column.
The defense also had up-and-down moments.
They were aggressive and attacked the ball most of the night. ATV came up with two interceptions and the Bruins forced a number of fumbles, though they didn't recover any of them.
The third quarter, however, saw the defense struggle to contain the Wildcat's read option running attack. K-State put together a massive, 14 play, 8 minute drive that resulted in a touchdown.
Eventually, the Bruin defense found it's grove again in the 4th quarter as the Wild Cats were forced to pass the ball to catch up.
The real story of the night, however, was penalties.
There were mind numbing amounts of penalties last night. UCLA was fortunate to be playing an inferior opponent, because those penalties would have easily cost the game against an Oregon, Cal, or USC.
For the third consecutive week, the defense kept crucial drives alive by committing untimely penalties.
Unfortunately, the offense joined the party as well. They replaced big gains and a touchdown pass with little yellow flags. It got so bad at one point, that it seemed like every other play ended with flags being thrown.
The team ended the game with 8 penalties for 80 yards. Which brings the total this season to 22 penalties for a whopping 208 yards. Compare that to 12 penalties and 99 yards for our opponents.
Coach Neuheisel and his staff will have to work on that during the bye week.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Dawg'n it
What was a surprise was that Aaron Corp and the SC passing game was bad. Down right atrocious. I think Carroll is going to have a rough season with his two inexperienced quarterbacks.
The moment that changed the outcome of that game is pictured here...
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
One Hand Tied Behind Our Back
Prince is out and it looks like Brehaut is the starter. I like Richard and thought he looked good in the spring and fall.
Unlike many, I'm not that worried if Craft gets in there. Kevin is a warrior who will benefit from a much improved line and running game. He still makes bad decisions, but he's also another year wiser and more experienced in the offense; I think he could surprise us.
In addition to our continued bad luck with injuries to quarterback, we have four players suspended for the game on Saturday.
The biggest loss is Courtney Viney. The red-shirt sophomore did a good job filling in for Aaron Hester against Tennessee last Saturday. It looks like Sheldon Price is in the running for the starting spot. We'll see how much the Wildcats throw against him.
The other 3 players were backups on offense. Knox, Presley, and Carroll. All are talented but we have other guys that an take their reps without a problem. Maybe Thigpen will get in there and wow us with some big moves.
All of these players being unavailable might actually have some postive effect on the team. Now we have to play with more urgency and focus. With Prince in there, the team may have coasted a bit after the big win in Knoxville.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
The Universe Hates Us
I suppose if you're going to fracture a bone during the season, your jaw isn't the worst choice. With some healing, and a protective face mask, Prince can play with the injury. It's got to hurt like a mo fo, but it's better than a knee or an ankle.
Injuring it on the last offensive drive against Tennessee isn't the worst timing. Prince should only miss 2 games, with K-State and Stanford sandwiching the bye week. Hopefully the Bruin's offense, which struggled for most of the game against the Volunteers, can overcome this adversity and still play well in two very winnable games.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Orange Slices
The defense was outstanding in that 4th quarter. Just absolutely outstanding. They didn't get a break but for some 3-and-outs and still managed to come up with that huge goal line stand on 4th down.
I'm sure, when this season is all said and done, we'll look back at another sub-par season from the Vols and chalk this game up as a "should have won". But, looking at it now, it's a mighty impressive win.
I'll have more thoughts tomorrow. Need to go back and re-watch the game. Which will be very fun indeed.
Monday, September 7, 2009
A Special Team
Yet those plays can make all the difference in a game.
Take Saturday's game against SDSU as case in point. UCLA dominated the special teams game, in every phase, and those plays boosted the Bruins to a rather comfortable victory.
Kai Forbath was money again. Do you realize how amazing it is to have a kicker who has never missed an attempt from beyond 50 yards?
While most fans hold their breath when their team's field goal unit takes the field... our fans head for the cooler. Oh, a 51 yard attempt from the left hash mark? That's a lock, I'm going to get another beer, you want one?
With Terrance Austin fielding kicks and punts, every play has the potential to be a big one. His 64 yard return after the 2nd SDSU touchdown was the boost in confidence our team needed. Now if he can just take one all the way back to the house, we'd be in business.
Just like last season, we had another blocked kick for a touchdown in the season opener. This time it was Jerzy Siewierski bum rushing his way though the line and getting a big paw up on a field goal attempt. Alteraun Verner, who has an uncanny knack for being in the right place at the right time, picked up the fumble and cruised into the end zone.
Those plays either directly or indirectly lead to 20 of the Bruin's 33 points. That, not so coincidentally, was basically the margin of victory.
Very special indeed.
(Photo Credit OC Register)
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Glimpses of the Future
It was a gorgeous day at the Rose Bowl on Saturday. That late summer sun was beaming down onto the greatest tailgating spots in the country. We had the grill going, the beer was flowing, and everyone was pumped to get the 2009 season started.
To my surprise, the air was crystal clear. You wouldn't have known that a fire ragged around the Arroyo Seco earlier in the week if it wasn't for the massive plum of smoke off in the distance.
The success of the first few SDSU drives weren't entirely surprising, in that UCLA had no idea what to expect from this team. It was well documented that the Aztecs had closed practices and Neuheisel and his staff didn't have any film on them.
The Bruin defense really shot themselves in the foot early. Two penalties on 3rd down, including a pass interference penalty in the end zone that gave Lindley and the Aztec a fresh set of downs, kept that first drive alive. Andrew Abbott got burned deep in nickle coverage and that lead to the 2nd touchdown.
Besides those two mistakes, the defense was stout.
There were bone crushing hits by Carter and Bosworth. Yet another ATV touchdown on a blocked field goal. The record tying three picks by Rahim Moore. All of that put the exclamation point on a dominating final 3 quarters of football.
The big news of the night, however, was the offense.
Kevin Prince looked immensely poised in that first half. I was very impressed. He connected 6 of 7 times on that first drive, including a nice shuffle pass that was negated by a holding penalty. His arm strength and accuracy are huge assets for this team and something that we haven't seen in a very long time.
In the second half, Prince reminded us that he is still a red-shirt freshman.
The two interceptions were head scratches; he threw them almost directly to the defender. The confusion could be attributed to the unconventional 3-3-5 Aztec defense. A more likely answer is that he made usual freshman-in-his-first game mistakes.
The running game looked very good. Their were some great runs by Coleman, Franklin, and Knox. The 3 youngsters were explosive.
In particular, Coleman is just a beast out there. He looks like a tank rolling down the field. The last two years he hasn't had much hype compared to the other tail backs. But every Saturday, he just comes out and gains yards for this team.
The offensive line was much, much improved. There were some nice holes for the backs and Prince actually had time to go through his progression. Of course, some of that success has to be taken with a grain of salt when you consider the level of the competition.
They did look good though. Not bad considering that 3 of those guys were making their first start in the blue and gold. It's a young line with 3 sophomores, a junior, and a true freshman making up the starting unit.
In fact, it was youth all around last night. There were tons of true and redshirt freshman on the field, especially on offense. Prince, Preselly, Breuhaut, Thigpen, Carroll, Knox, Franklin, and Su'a-Filo all saw action last night.
These guys are going to be clicking as a unit in a few years.
Definitely some great moments last night. Some glimpses of the future and the possibilities it holds.
(photo credit: ESPN)
Saturday, September 5, 2009
What Day Is This?
It feels like an eternity since we last hit the gridiron; especially with no bowl game last year. I'm packin' up the BBQ, gathering up the peeps, and heading up to Pasadena in just a few hours.
It's going to be hot, it's going to be ashy, and I'm sure the air quality is going to be crap.
But man... I can't wait. =)
It feels like Christmas morning. It's finally here! It's GAME DAY!